This quick update. The 5:00pm update from the NHC now has changed Frances' track back to the southern route of yesterday afternoon. Apparently this storm has them working overtime to keep up with her.

As you can see from the picture above, the track has moved a considerable distance from us. The current prediction will take it about 60 miles to the west.

Not one to take any chances, I went out this afternoon and picked up a new extendable tree saw/lopper and trimmed a few branches overhanging our roof and brushing up against the gable end.

It's breezy here while the skys are partly cloudy. It'll be interesting to see what the next NHC update will bring.

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We've been watching Frances pretty closely, as has the rest of Florida and much of the nation. One of the interesting things about this storm is it's uncertainty.
Image from ETOS, StarStoneSoftware


A few days ago it was a full blown (no pun intended) Catagory 4 storm, today it's been downgraded to a strong Cat 2 with potential to strengthen as it moves from the Bahamas into the Gulf Stream before reaching the Florida coastline.

A few days ago the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had projected the track of Frances directly through Ocala. Yesterday we noted that the projected track was taking the storm across southern Florida, through Lakeland and back into the Gulf where it would then re-cross the coastline in the panhandle just east of Apalachocola. This morning, with the 2 am advisory, the (NHC) had moved the track further north as it crossed Florida, then strafe Cedar Key as it again headed into the panhandle as before.

Now the NHC has this storms projected track about 15 miles to the west of Ocala. Of course this has us concerned here. The red diagonal line in the image is the NHC's projected path as of this afternoon at 2:00pm. This morning the county emergency offices announced the all mobile/manufactured housing will be evacuated. They do not want another situation like Charley produced in Port Charlotte.

Even though there is little doubt the winds here will in no way approach the strength of the Catagory 4 winds that hit southwest Florida a few weeks ago, we don't want to take any chances. Of course here in Marion county, evacuation will be a major task. Not only do we have a considerable retiree population, but there are many other residents here who take advantage of the low cost of manufactured housing.

Currently, the predicted winds are expected in the upper end of the tropical storm range, 38-74 mph, with gusts higher. While this is not hurricane strength and no where near the earlier predicted Cat 1 or 2 winds that could reach a high as 110 mph, these winds can still cause a lot of problems with downed trees and limbs, power outages and so on.

Some weaker housing, such as older manufactured housing could see damage as well as outdoor signs and loose objects outside. Needless to say we'll be making a survey of our yard and bring in anything that could be picked up and hurled by these winds.

The real concern is that since this storm's forward pace is slowing down, it will have more time to dump rain on the area as it goes by. That could mean rainfall in the range of 10 to 20 inches in less than 24 hours. While the soil in Florida is uniquely designed by our Creator to handle a lot of rain and percolate it rapidly into the aquifier, that much rain in so short a period of time will overwhelm it rapidly leading to flash floods, backed up storm drains and overflowing retention ponds.

Of course, all of this can rapidly change, depending on Frances, so stand by for further updates.
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Originally the track on Francis had it coming straight through our town. Current projections have it now going south of us just north of Lakeland, about 100 south. While that's good news for us, it put this storm straight through the area Charlie devastated just a few weeks ago.

We have family down there and are concerned for them, trusting God to take care of them. I've been in Florida for 16 years and have yet to see a hurricane come through Ocala, but locals tell of Elena in 1985 which, while the center did not actually hit Marion county, it parked off shore in the Gulf for several days and caused considerable wind and flood damage.

Earlier in the day, when the track still had this storm coming through us, I went to Walmart and picked up some extra water and some food staples. I guess Charlie made us a bit more aware of our venerable, and there is a heightened concern with Frances.

The state's resources are certainly stretched following Charlie's bull run through Florida and the reduced availability of temporary shelter in it's wake has many concerned where the evacuates will go. And not just for shelter. The real question is, "where should they go?"

France's track is certainly not set in stone and while the current track has it going across the state south of Orlando and Tampa, these things are notorious for their unpredictability. Take Charlie for instance.

It was a last minute change of direction and strength that brought it to Port Charlotte, then across state through Daytona Beach. We don't take these things for granted any more.

Barring a repeat of that performance, we currently don't expect Frances to track on our town, but we'll still keep a wary eye on it. All the while praying for those in it's direct path.

To keep up with the latest reports from the National Hurricane Center, click the link on the left side of our home page.


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Seems the Democrat party and Mr. Kerry are pretty thin skinned lately. No sense of humor. Some delegates to the Republican Convention in NYC passed out bandaids with Purple Hearts printed on them, a humorous swipe at the still brewing controversy over the nature of at least one of Mr. Kerry's medals.

The Dems didn't like it. (Also on Yahoo) Terry McAuliffe got in a huff and Rep. Charlie Rangel had the audacity to compare it to, of all things, the atrocities committed at Abu Ghraib. Shame on you.

This kind of over reaction indicates to me only one thing. The Dems are running scared. They must think Mr. Kerry's candidacy is in trouble. Why else would they be making such a big deal over such a minor bit of humor. This is the same group who had no problem with Whoopie Goldberg's audacious performance across town last month. This is the same group who thought Michael Moore's proven lies and distortions were the cat's meow.

This is the same bunch who think John Kerry, who never tells the same tale twice, who's memory changes with the wind and who's convictions have to be put on a teleprompter so he can keep up with his "stand de jour", who think Mr. Kerry is the epitome of integrity.

If these folks had any kind of firm grip on truth they would know humor when they see it, and if it's a bit sharp, they would laugh it off and move on. But they can't do it because humor like this strikes too close to home for them. It show the disingenuous of Mr. Kerry and Dems as a whole.

After all, it was Mr. Kerry who so repudiated those honored Purple Hearts that he threw them away at a 1971 war protest. Or were those someone else's. Or did he just pretend to throw them away. I can't keep up. What is it this week Mr. Kerry?

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